America in the
Dust Bin of History
part 2
If great empires are the larger creations of the smaller parts of its citizenry and respond like all naturalistic systems, what does this mean for America? What can we say about the possible existence of the retro implications of a fly in the ointment of 30 years ago that will realize themselves, or perhaps already are paramount in the state of America today?
The primary concern is not so much the layers of decline that a nation experiences as it dissolves, but that moment of “going critical” that should be resisted at all costs. Historically, fiscal problems of great depth are the harbingers of that sudden fall that most national entities of the past have experienced. Therefore, as the United States considers a national debt of more than 11% of the GDP, there should be crying and wailing in the streets.
These are indeed troublesome figures, but it is the resultant confidence in the overall competence of leadership and the comforting “American Way” attitude that comes under suspicion. This degeneration of national opinion could well undermine the overall confidence in the country itself and cause a multitude of smaller problems. Figures can be a problem but national fear could be even more of a destructive force.
In the future, a major negative news story could reach an untold number of the populace. In a moments time the lack of confidence in American fiscal policy could jump from merely a few insiders to the public majority and also foreign investors. Loss in viability of the whole system by the majority of its members is a dangerous shift in view point.
In recent times, the system of the complex global economy went from stalwart to anemic almost overnight all because of a large amount of defaults on sub prime mortgages. This cut the legs out from under thousands of financial institutions that were heavily in debt themselves. The coming problems could easily stem from the results of the unusual steps taken in responding by the government to this crisis.
If measures such as 0% interest rates or a fiscal stimulus package is seen as the wrong answer, perhaps even leading to higher inflation rates or even complete default, then a sustainable recovery will not be possible. Cost of interest payments on new debt can increase dramatically if bond yields escalate due to the lack of courage regarding American solvency.
Looking to the Russian example once more, the example that nations do not follow a circle of life is plain for all to see. This is an historian novelization of the facts. Great world powers are much like natural adaptive systems, they appear to function quite properly for some time and then suddenly succumb to an internal malaise, whether immediately apparent or not.
What to do.... what to do?
The primary concern is not so much the layers of decline that a nation experiences as it dissolves, but that moment of “going critical” that should be resisted at all costs. Historically, fiscal problems of great depth are the harbingers of that sudden fall that most national entities of the past have experienced. Therefore, as the United States considers a national debt of more than 11% of the GDP, there should be crying and wailing in the streets.
These are indeed troublesome figures, but it is the resultant confidence in the overall competence of leadership and the comforting “American Way” attitude that comes under suspicion. This degeneration of national opinion could well undermine the overall confidence in the country itself and cause a multitude of smaller problems. Figures can be a problem but national fear could be even more of a destructive force.
In the future, a major negative news story could reach an untold number of the populace. In a moments time the lack of confidence in American fiscal policy could jump from merely a few insiders to the public majority and also foreign investors. Loss in viability of the whole system by the majority of its members is a dangerous shift in view point.
In recent times, the system of the complex global economy went from stalwart to anemic almost overnight all because of a large amount of defaults on sub prime mortgages. This cut the legs out from under thousands of financial institutions that were heavily in debt themselves. The coming problems could easily stem from the results of the unusual steps taken in responding by the government to this crisis.
If measures such as 0% interest rates or a fiscal stimulus package is seen as the wrong answer, perhaps even leading to higher inflation rates or even complete default, then a sustainable recovery will not be possible. Cost of interest payments on new debt can increase dramatically if bond yields escalate due to the lack of courage regarding American solvency.
Looking to the Russian example once more, the example that nations do not follow a circle of life is plain for all to see. This is an historian novelization of the facts. Great world powers are much like natural adaptive systems, they appear to function quite properly for some time and then suddenly succumb to an internal malaise, whether immediately apparent or not.
What to do.... what to do?
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